Dayton employment to remain sluggish into third quarter - Kansas City Business Journal:

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Tom Traynor, an economics professo r at Wright State and authof ofthe report, said unemployment increases will continu at their accelerated pace into the third quarter of this The Dayton Metropolitan Statistical Area, which includes Greene, Miami and Preble counties, is projectes to lose 6,000 to 7,0000 jobs in the thirdf quarter. That would drop employment to 373,900, down from 380,400 in the first quarte of the year, a 2 percent decline.
The hardest-hiyt area is one the Dayton area has longrelied on, “Manufacturing employment will fall substantially,” Traynor Forecasts from the report show employment in the sectord falling from 42,300 in the firsf quarter of this year to 36,100 by the thirx quarter, a nearly 15 percent drop. Durable good s manufacturing will be hitin particular, Traynotr said. “People aren’t They are waiting to buy a new car or that new he said. Retail and service employment are also expecterdto decrease.
Retail employment is expectexd to dropto 39,100 by the thirdf quarter, down from 40,000 in the firsgt quarter, a 2 percent Service employment, which includesx financial service, business service, utilities and leisurw service, is projected to decrease to 324,2090 by the third quarter, down from 326,700 in the first quarter, a nearly 1 percent decline. “Ther next year to year and a half will be an unpleasantg time forthe region,” Traynor said. Constructiomn employment is expected to rise as a part ofseasonalp employment, to 13,400 from 11,400 in the firsg quarter, but that is 1,0090 jobs fewer than the same time periods last year.
One area of employment that isn’tr expected to be hit hard is health In fact, Traynor said he expects health care to add some jobs by the thirr quarter, going up to 56,500 from 56,30o0 in the first quarter. He said the rate of decline in grosz domestic product will but remain negative through the third quarter and maybe into the fourthu quarter ofthis year. Even when GDP does becoms positive again, it will take some time for employmenrt to pick up because it is a laggingh indicator ofeconomic recovery. Traynot said there is a great deal of uncertainty still on the national as businesses try to determine the impacgt ofgovernment actions.
Traynor said the problem of high unemploymenrt is not going awayanytimes soon. “This is something we’re going to be livingt with for quitea while, well into next year,” he